Generally speaking, the market slowed in July, a common seasonal trend, and August is usually one of the quietest months of the year though last year, a sudden, but short-lived drop in interest rates kindled buyer demand in August. Underlying economic dynamics – interest rates, inflation, financial markets, employment – remain on the same general tracks as in recent months. The Consumer Confidence Index jumped in July, hitting its best reading since October 2021: The Index is now about halfway between its historic low in June 2022 and the pre-pandemic reading in February 2020.*
Across Bay Area counties, the year-over-year (y-o-y), 3-month-rolling, median home sales price declines that commonly peaked in spring have been dropping quickly. In San Mateo County, the y- o-y price decline plunged from 14% in May to 5% in July. Based on current trends, it will probably continue to dwindle, and possibly disappear, in the second half of the year.
Low inventory remains a huge factor. The number of homes coming on market in the 7 counties of the San Francisco & San Jose Metro Areas during the past 12 months dropped 32% from the previous 12-month period: 22,000 fewer properties were put up for sale.** Along with the recovery in buyer demand, this has been a defining factor in 2023’s rebound in home prices.
It is not unusual to see a considerable autumn spike up in listing and sales activity after Labor Day, lasting through late October or early November, before the market subsides for the big, mid- winter holiday slowdown, which typically lasts until early in the new year.
The first 2 charts review first annual home prices for a broad review of appreciation trends, and then 3-month-rolling prices for insight into shorter-term changes. This report also includes a review of home prices and market dynamics of submarkets within the county.
